US Tourism Crisis: 70% Drop in Flights Threatens 140K Jobs and $14B in Economic Spending

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The U.S. Tourism Industry Faces Unprecedented Decline

Tourism to the U.S. is plummeting at an alarming rate, with new data revealing a 70% drop in air travel from Canada and a 45% decline in land crossings. Analysts warn this could lead to $14 billion in lost economic activity and put 140,000 hospitality jobs at risk. Here’s what’s driving the boycott—and how savvy investors are adapting.

Why Are Tourists Avoiding the U.S.?

Canada, the largest source of U.S. tourism, saw 20 million visitors in 2024, contributing 26% of all international trips. But recent policies have sparked a backlash:

  • Travel Barriers: New tariffs, visa restrictions, and reports of harsh detainments (like a Canadian citizen shackled at an ICE facility) have eroded trust.
  • Consumer Backlash: 85% of surveyed Canadian tourists canceled U.S. trips, with air travel demand collapsing to near-zero.
  • Global Ripple Effects: European bookings are down 25%, signaling a broader international boycott.

The Economic Fallout

The U.S. Travel Association estimates that even a 10% tourism dip would cost $2 billion and 140,000 jobs. With declines now 14x worse than initial predictions, border states like Niagara Falls are especially vulnerable. Hospitality chains, airlines, and retailers face revenue crashes as spending shifts to Europe, Asia, and Oceania.

Investment Strategies: Shorting U.S. Tourism, Going Global

One Redditor shared their approach to capitalize on the trend:

  1. Short Airlines & Hospitality: Target carriers like Air Canada and ONEX (parent of WestJet) slashing U.S.-Canada routes. Border-state hotels and restaurants are also at risk.
  2. Long International Travel: Invest in non-U.S. hotel chains and booking platforms benefiting from redirected tourism.
  3. Secondary Plays: Short airport retailers and flight suppliers; pivot to regional aircraft providers servicing unaffected routes.

A Warning Sign for Policymakers

With the U.S. rolling out controversial policies globally on “Liberation Day,” the Canadian boycott may foreshadow a wider crisis. As one analyst noted: “If Canadian travelers are the canary in the coal mine, $14 billion in losses might just be the start.”

What’s Next? Investors are bracing for volatility, while the hospitality sector scrambles to adapt. Will the U.S. reverse course—or double down? Share your thoughts below.

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